Some Numbers May Actually Lie

We all heard about how Carl Paladino is a mere 6 percentage points behind Andrew Cuomo in the race to be the next Governor of New York. Well, that was just one poll. Cuomo said that Paladino was up because of the media coverage regarding his from-behind win to becoming the the Republican nominee for Governor. Well, that was one poll.

Since the first one, by Quinnipiac University, two more have come out. One by SurveyUSA and another from Siena College. I don't know how the polling for SurveyUSA was conducted, but I do for the other two. The Quinnipiac poll surveyed "likely voters" and only gave two options (Andrew Cuomo or Carl Paladino). The Siena poll surveyed "registered voters" and gave three options (Cuomo, Paladino and Rick Lazio). What is the difference between "likely voters" and "registered voters?" Likely voters do not include first-time voters (and, may, exclude voters that did not vote in recent elections).

Below is a break-down of the results of the polling data for all of the state-wide races:

Governor	Quinnipiac	SurveyUSA	Siena
Andrew Cuomo	49%	49%	57%
Carl Paladino	43%	40%	24%
Rick Lazio		8% (listed as "other")	8%
Undecided		3%	10%
Attorney General	Quinnipiac	SurveyUSA	Siena
Eric Schniederman	37%		45%
Dan Donovan	36%		32%
Undecided	27%		23%
Comptroller	Quinnipiac	SurveyUSA	Siena
Tom DiNapoli	46%		51%
Harry Wilson	30%		25%
Undecided	24%		25%
Senate (Full Term)	Quinnipiac	SurveyUSA	Siena
Charles Schumer	54%	54%	63%
Jay Townsend	38%	53%	30%
Undecided		3%	6%
Senate (Special)	Quinnipiac	SurveyUSA	Siena
Kirsten Gillibrand	48%	45%	57%
Joe DioGuardi	42%	44%	31%
Undecided		4%	12%
Democratic Republican Conservative