Some Numbers May Actually Lie

We all heard about how Carl Paladino is a mere 6 percentage points behind Andrew Cuomo in the race to be the next Governor of New York. Well, that was just one poll. Cuomo said that Paladino was up because of the media coverage regarding his from-behind win to becoming the the Republican nominee for Governor. Well, that was one poll.

Since the first one, by Quinnipiac University, two more have come out. One by SurveyUSA and another from Siena College. I don't know how the polling for SurveyUSA was conducted, but I do for the other two. The Quinnipiac poll surveyed "likely voters" and only gave two options (Andrew Cuomo or Carl Paladino). The Siena poll surveyed "registered voters" and gave three options (Cuomo, Paladino and Rick Lazio). What is the difference between "likely voters" and "registered voters?" Likely voters do not include first-time voters (and, may, exclude voters that did not vote in recent elections).

Below is a break-down of the results of the polling data for all of the state-wide races:

Governor	Quinnipiac	SurveyUSA	Siena
Andrew Cuomo	49%	49%	57%
Carl Paladino	43%	40%	24%
Rick Lazio		8% (listed as "other")	8%
Undecided		3%	10%
Attorney General	Quinnipiac	SurveyUSA	Siena
Eric Schniederman	37%		45%
Dan Donovan	36%		32%
Undecided	27%		23%
Comptroller	Quinnipiac	SurveyUSA	Siena
Tom DiNapoli	46%		51%
Harry Wilson	30%		25%
Undecided	24%		25%
Senate (Full Term)	Quinnipiac	SurveyUSA	Siena
Charles Schumer	54%	54%	63%
Jay Townsend	38%	53%	30%
Undecided		3%	6%
Senate (Special)	Quinnipiac	SurveyUSA	Siena
Kirsten Gillibrand	48%	45%	57%
Joe DioGuardi	42%	44%	31%
Undecided		4%	12%
Democratic Republican Conservative

Patterson Resign? Heck No!

I am on a 3 train right now and reading a NY Post Article about Gov. David Patterson. If you all don't know what the Governor's latest scandal is, just go to Wikipedia, I don't care enough to explain it all.

The article that I have taken a sabbatical reading discusses how Democratic Party leaders are calling him to resign. I think that that is the absolute worst idea ever to do.

Let's rewind to when Patterson took office following Gov. Spitzer's escapades. Patterson, in his first week as Governor, admitted his own extramarital affairs. The press was buzzing about it for months.

It was more than obvious that the suspected turn of events in early 2008 was that Hillary would become President and Spitzer would appoint Patterson to fill out her seat. Well, we all know how well that went.

After Patterson chose Kirsten Gillibrand to fill Clinton's seat, everyone asked why. I knew exactly why: he was going to run for that seat. If Patterson's approval numbers hadn't fallen so low, he could have easily beaten her in the primary. Why didn't he just appoint himself? You ask. Remember the turmoil I mentioned 2 paragraphs ago? That's why. New York would have to have a special election for a Governor and Lieutenant Governor to fill out the term. How much disarray you bet the state would be in then?

Fast forward to last June with New York's State "Senate." Remember the uproar when Gov. Patterson appointed Richard Ravitch as Lieutenant Governor?

Now, consider Patterson Resigning. Ravitch (as today's New York Times put it, "the last honest man left in Albany") would become Governor. I will bet anyone that if he became Governor, every good government group would complain since the public never voted for him and he was never approved by the people's designated representatives. Albany would be more dysfunctional than anything we have ever seen. At the bare minimum, there would be another constitutional question the state Court of Appeals would have to address.

For, at a minimum, the state of New York's sake, Governor Patterson must not resign and must continue his term of service for the next year.
Seamus Campbell
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